You're Michigan State. You've started the B10 0-2 with a couple tough road losses. You need to get back on track. No problem! Indiana's coming to town.
Michigan State by 14.
You're Iowa. You're struggling. You barely beat Penn State on the road. It took you two overtimes to beat Minnesota at home. And you just got SPANKED at Michigan State by THIRTY. Fans are panicking. No problem! Indiana's coming to town.
Iowa by 13.
You're Minnesota. The bottom has dropped out. You're 0-6 in B10 play. You lost AT HOME to Northwestern. You lost by 16 to Michigan in your last home game. You just got blown out at Illinois by 24 points. No problem! Indiana's coming to town.
Minnesota by 19.
You're Wisconsin. You're in a tailspin. You've gone from being ranked to losing 3 straight and 5 of 6 games, including a home loss to North Dakota State and another home loss to Illinois by 15. You've lost 2 players and your bench is painfully thin. Your NCAA hopes appear to be withering on the vine. No problem! Indiana's coming to town.
Wisconsin by 18.
Penn State can't wait for February 15th.
Thursday, February 09, 2006
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
Karen's in the newspaper
From the Herald-Sun - http://www.heraldsun.com/durham/4-698580.html
Easley PTA auction nets $19K
Members of the Easley Elementary School Parent-Teacher Association raised $19,000 at their second annual silent auction fundraiser on Saturday evening.
Karen Bleizeffer, PTA vice president, said parents "wanted a fundraiser that didn't involve sending kids door-to-door selling wrapping paper." The three-hour event, held at Willowhaven Country Club, auctioned sports collectibles and gift certificates donated by merchants.
Last year's auction raised $12,000 and this year's goal was set at $15,000, a figure Bleizeffer said she was "proud to see exceeded." The auction is one of two major fundraisers organized by the PTA during the school year, following a school carnival in the fall.
Monday, February 06, 2006
Thanks
Your cake picture is beautiful, but it's not chocolate. I followed your instructions to have my own blog name or whatever, but I don't seem to be connected to the bleizeffer blog when I use it. I am just hanging out there. Is there something in the profile that I didn't fill in? I did change my password. Mom
Sunday, February 05, 2006
IU vs U Conn
Sorry, you had to miss the televised game. First, I was able to watch the Minnesota debacle but missed the Northwestern game (I was at Mandys...again). I taped the Iowa game, but didn't watch the tape after learning of their loss. It is difficult to comment on a team when you are only watching 50% of the contests, but here goes.
On Mike Davis - It is obvious that Davis would have been gone if the team followed up their loss at Minnesota with a home loss to Northwestern. That didn't happen so we have to wait and see. It is just stupid, however, to fire or retain a coach based upon the outcome of one or two games. As I have stated in the past, my complaint is that we aren't recruiting the best of the Indiana high school graduates...Dominic James to Marquette, McRoberts to Duke, Oden and Conley to Ohio State, Gordon to Illinois. These players are the best Indiana has to offer. We have to get them excited about playing for IU...so let's get someone in there who can recruit these kids.
On the Team - This is a very perplexing unit! They looked great the first 14 minutes of the first half...then allowed U Conn to outscore them 19-5 before halftime. I use the word allow because it is appropriate. The team just began standing around as if they were spectators there to watch the #1 team. They did not compete at all. I hate to think that a well conditioned college kid would tire so easily, but that is what it looked like. I dread to think that Killingsworth's second foul and a seat on the bench was the reason. If so, IU has no hope down the road.
They continued this downward spiral to start the second half and were down 20 points six minutes into the half. At this point I thought they would lose by 30 since they didn't seem to be exerting any effort on defense or going after rebounds or loose balls. Calloway enters the game and plays like he did against Duke (maybe he performs only against #1 teams). To be honest, he was his usual "slightly out of control" self, but it worked. It appeared to me that the rest of the players were well on their way to accepting a 30 point blowout until Calloway made some plays and we sank a few 3 pointers. The mind set changed to "hey! We're within 12 now and maybe we should play harder and see what happens" To their credit, they did compete much better the rest of the way.
IU vs Wisconsin - I would not doubt that we will see a repeat of the Minnesota game, but I am hoping for a fight to the end. I wouldn't mind a loss if only they would play a 40 minute game.
Interior defense - Our greatest deficiency. It would have been great if DJ White had played this season...not that he is a great rebounder..but his shot blocking skills alongside Marco would make IU much tougher inside. Ben Allen is not an inside guy and Kline only fouls when defending a bigger man. One almost wishes we still had Ewing.
Role Players - Lets see...Ratliff, Wilmont, Strickland, Vaden...these are the four players we depend on the most but they are clones of each other. Without a respected second banger on the inside, they have to do too much for IU to secure a victory.
On Mike Davis - It is obvious that Davis would have been gone if the team followed up their loss at Minnesota with a home loss to Northwestern. That didn't happen so we have to wait and see. It is just stupid, however, to fire or retain a coach based upon the outcome of one or two games. As I have stated in the past, my complaint is that we aren't recruiting the best of the Indiana high school graduates...Dominic James to Marquette, McRoberts to Duke, Oden and Conley to Ohio State, Gordon to Illinois. These players are the best Indiana has to offer. We have to get them excited about playing for IU...so let's get someone in there who can recruit these kids.
On the Team - This is a very perplexing unit! They looked great the first 14 minutes of the first half...then allowed U Conn to outscore them 19-5 before halftime. I use the word allow because it is appropriate. The team just began standing around as if they were spectators there to watch the #1 team. They did not compete at all. I hate to think that a well conditioned college kid would tire so easily, but that is what it looked like. I dread to think that Killingsworth's second foul and a seat on the bench was the reason. If so, IU has no hope down the road.
They continued this downward spiral to start the second half and were down 20 points six minutes into the half. At this point I thought they would lose by 30 since they didn't seem to be exerting any effort on defense or going after rebounds or loose balls. Calloway enters the game and plays like he did against Duke (maybe he performs only against #1 teams). To be honest, he was his usual "slightly out of control" self, but it worked. It appeared to me that the rest of the players were well on their way to accepting a 30 point blowout until Calloway made some plays and we sank a few 3 pointers. The mind set changed to "hey! We're within 12 now and maybe we should play harder and see what happens" To their credit, they did compete much better the rest of the way.
IU vs Wisconsin - I would not doubt that we will see a repeat of the Minnesota game, but I am hoping for a fight to the end. I wouldn't mind a loss if only they would play a 40 minute game.
Interior defense - Our greatest deficiency. It would have been great if DJ White had played this season...not that he is a great rebounder..but his shot blocking skills alongside Marco would make IU much tougher inside. Ben Allen is not an inside guy and Kline only fouls when defending a bigger man. One almost wishes we still had Ewing.
Role Players - Lets see...Ratliff, Wilmont, Strickland, Vaden...these are the four players we depend on the most but they are clones of each other. Without a respected second banger on the inside, they have to do too much for IU to secure a victory.
Saturday, February 04, 2006
I wasn't able to watch yet another game
Thanks CBS.
My impression from watching the play-by-play on the CBS ticker is that UConn was playing a different game than we were. Yeah, we managed to get the score competitive at the end, but I think UConn had another gear they could have kicked into had we really threatened them.
Strange feeling thinking that Indiana can play really hard and still not be a threat to win in a home game.
Says as much about UConn as Indiana.
My impression from watching the play-by-play on the CBS ticker is that UConn was playing a different game than we were. Yeah, we managed to get the score competitive at the end, but I think UConn had another gear they could have kicked into had we really threatened them.
Strange feeling thinking that Indiana can play really hard and still not be a threat to win in a home game.
Says as much about UConn as Indiana.
Friday, February 03, 2006
Pre-UConn season review
As part of my continuing effort to avoid doing real work, I've been thinking about how the team has gotten to where it is. So I decided write up some thoughts - in essence a season review... or mid-season review. Or mid-to-late season review. This is really for my benefit, because writing helps me organize my thoughts. Not sure it'll be interesting for anyone else.
Heading into the season, we didn't really know what to expect. It appeared that the team would be talented, but there were so many new pieces that it was hard to know how things would go. How good was Killingsworth? Would Monroe or Calloway be good enough to man the point guard position? Would moving a historically poor shooter like Strickland to SG really work out? Would Killingsworth and White be able to coexist happily on the court? Would Vaden flourish after finally moving to the 3? Would Dinc lead the team in scoring?
Unfortunately, we lost White and Ratliff to start the season, which made us even harder to predict, since those were two of our known qualities. Of course, this also helped Indiana, because our opponents had no idea what to expect either. About the only thing opponents could count on, given the last five seasons, is that Indiana would play slow and not shoot a high percentage. =)
Given the uncertainty and new parts, it's probably a good thing that we started the season with 3 major cupcake games. Nicholls State (292), Florida A&M (251), and Western Illinois (301) are all among the bottom teams in division I, according to Sagarin (and everyone else, for that matter). To their credit, Indiana pounded all 3. Not only pounded, but scored in bunches (99, 100, and 102 points), shot an incredible percentage, increased our # of possessions dramatically, and we appeared to have both a capable inside threat and a bevy of 3 point shooters -- which is precisely what this offense requires.
Then Duke came to town. Mike Krzyzewski looked at our first three games and decided that our 3 point shooting was scarier than Marco Killingsworth. He knew that our offense is predicated on getting the ball inside, drawing help, then getting open 3 point shots... or not drawing help and having Marco make a move. So he decided to put a ton of perimeter pressure on our guards and let Sheldon Williams guard Marco straight-up. It worked and Duke won. It also established Marco as one of the best players in the country for manhandling defensive whiz Williams. The established wisdom was that Duke made a decision to force Marco to beat them single-handedly - and he almost did it!
I think this was a very pivotal moment in the season, and for odd reasons. First, I'd bet my bottom dollar that if we played Duke now they'd do things completely differently - they'd realize that they could double on Marco AND prevent Indiana from getting open three pointers. Plus, opposing coaches didn't watch the game and think, "Hmm, Duke single-teams Marco and won - I'm gonna do the same thing." They thought, "Damn, no way am I playing Marco straight up." So Duke won the game while showing the nation how NOT to play Indiana.
After a lackluster blowout of Eastern Michigan (#282), another one of the worst teams in the country, Indiana went on the road and were shocked by Indiana State -- a game I wasn't able to watch. What did this game tell us in restrospect? First, that ISU (with Moss) is a lot better than people thought -- and they continued to prove that before Moss's injury. Second, if you put a bunch of pressure on Marco, good things happen (10 pts and 7 turnovers), and Indiana won't necessarily hit all those 3 pointers (8-24). It also suggested that IU's road woes might continue.
Fortunately for the Hoosiers, redemption was only days away, when we blew Kentucky off the floor. Although once again our 3 pointers weren't falling (5-16), Marco looked unstoppable again, we took care of the ball (12 TOs), played good defense, and Kentucky couldn't hit a 3 pointer to save their lives (2-27). And AJ Ratliff came out of his shell and scored 21 points in the second half. AJ's back!
Er, not really. AJ went back to struggling after the game and still isn't back to last season's form.
The other good news is that DJ White was returning from injury for the next game against Charlotte.
Which is a good place to pause.
What had happened in the first 7 pre-DJ games? 4 of the games were against awful teams, and we clobbered them, basically. In the 3 games against not-awful teams, Indiana was 1-2. One was a home loss against #1 Duke and their never-see-it-again junk defense. One was a road loss against a good mid-major team when they were able to stifle Marco. And one was a neutral court blowout against a mediocre Kentucky team - on a night when they shot even worse than usual.
Clearly, IU's offense had improved a great deal from the previous season(s), and our defense wasn't awful either. But if you look only at the three games that you'd expect to be competitive, I can't help but conclude that if Indiana had played a tougher schedule over this stretch, things would have gone differently. Our ranking was basically due to the cupcake games, and the understandable goodwill generated from playing Duke tough and blowing out Kentucky (which is nice, no matter how good they are). But if you compare how we're playing right now to the Duke, ISU, and Kentucky games, is there a big difference? I think we were playing better then than now, but honestly I think the difference might be almost completely attributable to our opponent's ever-increasing ability to prepare for Killingsworth. If Duke, ISU, and Kentucky had as many game tapes to review as Minnesota and NW had, I bet those games would have been played very differently.
But hey, all you can do is play the games that are scheduled, right? So with DJ back, Indiana played, IMO, easily their best stretch of basketball of the season. We beat Charlotte (#105) easily on the road. We beat a good Butler team (#79) in Indy by a comfortable margin. We destroyed an average Ball State team (#165) on the road. We beat a very good Michigan team (#16) at home with balanced scoring (Strick, Vaden, Marco, DJ, and Wilmont all in double figures), in spite of major concerns with defensive rebounding. Then we beat an excellent Ohio State team (#10) at home in a hard-fought game behind 26 points on 9-14 shooting from Marco, great outside shooting (10-21 3 pters) and clutch plays at the end from Strickland - and once again we had 5 guys in double figures, and one of them wasn't DJ White, who only played 17 minutes, scored 6 points, and was limping noticeably after the game.
*sigh*
At the time, I was a little bit disappointed that those games were so close, but in retrospect OSU and Michigan appear to be the real deal, and beating them in any form is a nice accomplishment.
And, obviously, it's time for the next pause.
With DJ in the lineup Indiana was 5-0, including 3-0 away from Assembly Hall, all five of those games were against non-cupcakes, and two of them were against top 16 teams in the country. IMO, Indiana was playing very well during this stretch, and DJ was clearly not at top strength yet.
Where would Indiana be right now with DJ White? Well, winning at MSU is unlikely for anyone. Our other losses were at Iowa (where no one has won this season) and at Minnesota (a game I'm trying to block from memory). Would our record be different? I think it would be, because we wouldn't have lost to Minnesota - because the team wouldn't be in the process of imploding right now, IMO. We probably would have lost to MSU and Iowa anyway, but we wouldn't have played as poorly doing it (and I'm not sure about the Iowa loss, frankly). I think things would be very, very different right now.
Standard caveat: Noting that things would be different with DJ is not an excuse for Mike Davis. There's no reason that that the level of play for a still-talented Indiana team should decline to dramatically without DJ.
So, DJ is out again, and Indiana goes on the road against Michigan State, and then we find out that Lewis Monroe is out as well. Michigan State scores on every possession and Indiana stays in the game until about mid-way through the second half before being put away. IMO, there is nothing to be learned from this game. We lost two starters right before the game, MSU is very good and they were pumped, we still managed to keep with them for most of the game... but in the end we weren't in a position to win in the final minutes.
Then came Illinois (#6). A game in which Indiana played really, really bad... then really, really good... then really, really bad... and came out with a quality win. Some were wondering whether Illinois was overranked at the time -- again, this appears to not be the case. That Indiana sans DJ could beat such a good team while playing so poorly for long stretches is arguably a good sign... except that the long stretches of bad play were a concern. Wilmont also had a really good game against Illinois... which turned out to be a sign of things to come. However, Wilmont and Marco were the only double-figure scorers this time, and Vaden went 0-5 from 3 point range, part of a mini-slump. Shawn Pruitt scored a career high as well - which to me was really the start of some visible issues between Marco and the coaches regarding his defense.
The Purdue game was ugly. Another career night for an opposing interior player. Indiana only shot 39.1% (a season low at the time). Vaden continued to struggle with his shot. Allen started but his defense put him right back on the bench. It might've just been a standard letdown in between two huge games, but unfortunately the chinks in the armor against Illinois seemed to continue. After beating Illinois, it seemed almost strange that the team didn't seem to be playing with confidence.
Still, we were 4-1 in the conference with two big road games coming up.
Iowa is a good team (#19) and undefeated at home, and to make matters worse Strickland was unable to play (which in restrospect was an even worse situation because Davis could not move Strick to point when Iowa switched Brunner onto Monroe. With Ratliff struggling, Indiana was force to play long stretches with two of Monroe, Calloway, ad Suhr at the same time. Marco had possibly his worst game (to that point) with 5-14 shooting, 4 turnovers, and 2 defensive rebounds. Indiana stayed in the game for most of it thanks to the heroics of Robert Vaden (26 points on 8-12 shooting from the 3 point line), but overall Indiana seemed to be fighting just to keep things competitive. Marco's attitude seemed to get worse with every B10 game, and Ratliff fouled out in 9 minutes. Ugh.
Ratliff said after the game that some of his teammates weren't giving it their all.
I think this was the turning point of the season. After beating Illinois a week earlier, the team seemed to have completely lost it's swagger, Marco was being taken mentally out of the games, players were questioning their teammates, etc. As fans, we overreact to losses on principle, and certainly the last few seasons have taken this to a new level -- for example we had fans writing the season off because we lost at Michigan State... immediately after losing two starters. Because, you know, MSU was 0-2 and not that good.
But if we ignore our own strangeness for a second, it seems like the mental collapse of the team was bizarre and unfounded. We just beat Illinois. We just beat Purdue. And we lost to a good Iowa team without Strickland. Yet the team seemed to be in crisis mode. Why? Sure, they weren't playing as well as they were capable of playing, but the mood of the team seemed out of whack with how bad the situation really was. The more I think about it, the more I think that the mental impact of losing DJ again was more devastating than we realized -- and larger than it should have been. The loss at Iowa seemed to severely shake the team up, resulting directly in the disaster at Minnesota. Suddenly the team was not executing, not playing with passion, not shooting well... the shift was fast and unwarranted, IMO.
Northwestern is not a game to get one's mojo back. Their offensive and defensive schemes are so irregular that Indiana had to just kinda plow through the game, which they did. Marco showed no signs of recovering his earlier season form, but I thought the rest of the team made a little progress - or at least stopped the bleeding. UConn is arguably not a great chance to get back on track either - it's an opportunity to get back emotionally with a win, but trying to beat the #1 team in the country in order to get your team's head back in the game is a tough situation (particularly because I think we match up horribly with UConn).
In the end, I'm not sure what to make of things. On the one hand, I think there's no reason to believe that the team can't play MUCH better than they're playing right now, based on the evidence at hand, but at the same time the fact that they've fallen apart so dramatically makes me worry about their ability to pull back together. On the one hand the team has played well in some games without DJ against some good teams, on the other hand our road record without DJ is astonishly bad (Western Illinois, Indiana State, Michigan State, Iowa, Minnesota -- 4 losses and 1 win against a team that is significantly worse than the worst B10 team). There's clearly a ton of variability still left in how this season might play out. But I think if you look at the season without the DJ games and without the 4 mega-cupcake games, the clear implication is that the best this team can hope to accomplish is significantly less than winning the B10 and making a long run in the NCAA tournament.
Duke 75, Indiana 67
Indiana State 72, Indiana 67
Indiana 79, Kentucky 53
Michigan St. 87, Indiana 73
Indiana 62, Illinois 60
Indiana 62, Purdue 49
Iowa 73, Indiana 60
Minnesota 61, Indiana 42
Indiana 72, Northwestern 63
Heading into the season, we didn't really know what to expect. It appeared that the team would be talented, but there were so many new pieces that it was hard to know how things would go. How good was Killingsworth? Would Monroe or Calloway be good enough to man the point guard position? Would moving a historically poor shooter like Strickland to SG really work out? Would Killingsworth and White be able to coexist happily on the court? Would Vaden flourish after finally moving to the 3? Would Dinc lead the team in scoring?
Unfortunately, we lost White and Ratliff to start the season, which made us even harder to predict, since those were two of our known qualities. Of course, this also helped Indiana, because our opponents had no idea what to expect either. About the only thing opponents could count on, given the last five seasons, is that Indiana would play slow and not shoot a high percentage. =)
Given the uncertainty and new parts, it's probably a good thing that we started the season with 3 major cupcake games. Nicholls State (292), Florida A&M (251), and Western Illinois (301) are all among the bottom teams in division I, according to Sagarin (and everyone else, for that matter). To their credit, Indiana pounded all 3. Not only pounded, but scored in bunches (99, 100, and 102 points), shot an incredible percentage, increased our # of possessions dramatically, and we appeared to have both a capable inside threat and a bevy of 3 point shooters -- which is precisely what this offense requires.
Then Duke came to town. Mike Krzyzewski looked at our first three games and decided that our 3 point shooting was scarier than Marco Killingsworth. He knew that our offense is predicated on getting the ball inside, drawing help, then getting open 3 point shots... or not drawing help and having Marco make a move. So he decided to put a ton of perimeter pressure on our guards and let Sheldon Williams guard Marco straight-up. It worked and Duke won. It also established Marco as one of the best players in the country for manhandling defensive whiz Williams. The established wisdom was that Duke made a decision to force Marco to beat them single-handedly - and he almost did it!
I think this was a very pivotal moment in the season, and for odd reasons. First, I'd bet my bottom dollar that if we played Duke now they'd do things completely differently - they'd realize that they could double on Marco AND prevent Indiana from getting open three pointers. Plus, opposing coaches didn't watch the game and think, "Hmm, Duke single-teams Marco and won - I'm gonna do the same thing." They thought, "Damn, no way am I playing Marco straight up." So Duke won the game while showing the nation how NOT to play Indiana.
After a lackluster blowout of Eastern Michigan (#282), another one of the worst teams in the country, Indiana went on the road and were shocked by Indiana State -- a game I wasn't able to watch. What did this game tell us in restrospect? First, that ISU (with Moss) is a lot better than people thought -- and they continued to prove that before Moss's injury. Second, if you put a bunch of pressure on Marco, good things happen (10 pts and 7 turnovers), and Indiana won't necessarily hit all those 3 pointers (8-24). It also suggested that IU's road woes might continue.
Fortunately for the Hoosiers, redemption was only days away, when we blew Kentucky off the floor. Although once again our 3 pointers weren't falling (5-16), Marco looked unstoppable again, we took care of the ball (12 TOs), played good defense, and Kentucky couldn't hit a 3 pointer to save their lives (2-27). And AJ Ratliff came out of his shell and scored 21 points in the second half. AJ's back!
Er, not really. AJ went back to struggling after the game and still isn't back to last season's form.
The other good news is that DJ White was returning from injury for the next game against Charlotte.
Which is a good place to pause.
What had happened in the first 7 pre-DJ games? 4 of the games were against awful teams, and we clobbered them, basically. In the 3 games against not-awful teams, Indiana was 1-2. One was a home loss against #1 Duke and their never-see-it-again junk defense. One was a road loss against a good mid-major team when they were able to stifle Marco. And one was a neutral court blowout against a mediocre Kentucky team - on a night when they shot even worse than usual.
Clearly, IU's offense had improved a great deal from the previous season(s), and our defense wasn't awful either. But if you look only at the three games that you'd expect to be competitive, I can't help but conclude that if Indiana had played a tougher schedule over this stretch, things would have gone differently. Our ranking was basically due to the cupcake games, and the understandable goodwill generated from playing Duke tough and blowing out Kentucky (which is nice, no matter how good they are). But if you compare how we're playing right now to the Duke, ISU, and Kentucky games, is there a big difference? I think we were playing better then than now, but honestly I think the difference might be almost completely attributable to our opponent's ever-increasing ability to prepare for Killingsworth. If Duke, ISU, and Kentucky had as many game tapes to review as Minnesota and NW had, I bet those games would have been played very differently.
But hey, all you can do is play the games that are scheduled, right? So with DJ back, Indiana played, IMO, easily their best stretch of basketball of the season. We beat Charlotte (#105) easily on the road. We beat a good Butler team (#79) in Indy by a comfortable margin. We destroyed an average Ball State team (#165) on the road. We beat a very good Michigan team (#16) at home with balanced scoring (Strick, Vaden, Marco, DJ, and Wilmont all in double figures), in spite of major concerns with defensive rebounding. Then we beat an excellent Ohio State team (#10) at home in a hard-fought game behind 26 points on 9-14 shooting from Marco, great outside shooting (10-21 3 pters) and clutch plays at the end from Strickland - and once again we had 5 guys in double figures, and one of them wasn't DJ White, who only played 17 minutes, scored 6 points, and was limping noticeably after the game.
*sigh*
At the time, I was a little bit disappointed that those games were so close, but in retrospect OSU and Michigan appear to be the real deal, and beating them in any form is a nice accomplishment.
And, obviously, it's time for the next pause.
With DJ in the lineup Indiana was 5-0, including 3-0 away from Assembly Hall, all five of those games were against non-cupcakes, and two of them were against top 16 teams in the country. IMO, Indiana was playing very well during this stretch, and DJ was clearly not at top strength yet.
Where would Indiana be right now with DJ White? Well, winning at MSU is unlikely for anyone. Our other losses were at Iowa (where no one has won this season) and at Minnesota (a game I'm trying to block from memory). Would our record be different? I think it would be, because we wouldn't have lost to Minnesota - because the team wouldn't be in the process of imploding right now, IMO. We probably would have lost to MSU and Iowa anyway, but we wouldn't have played as poorly doing it (and I'm not sure about the Iowa loss, frankly). I think things would be very, very different right now.
Standard caveat: Noting that things would be different with DJ is not an excuse for Mike Davis. There's no reason that that the level of play for a still-talented Indiana team should decline to dramatically without DJ.
So, DJ is out again, and Indiana goes on the road against Michigan State, and then we find out that Lewis Monroe is out as well. Michigan State scores on every possession and Indiana stays in the game until about mid-way through the second half before being put away. IMO, there is nothing to be learned from this game. We lost two starters right before the game, MSU is very good and they were pumped, we still managed to keep with them for most of the game... but in the end we weren't in a position to win in the final minutes.
Then came Illinois (#6). A game in which Indiana played really, really bad... then really, really good... then really, really bad... and came out with a quality win. Some were wondering whether Illinois was overranked at the time -- again, this appears to not be the case. That Indiana sans DJ could beat such a good team while playing so poorly for long stretches is arguably a good sign... except that the long stretches of bad play were a concern. Wilmont also had a really good game against Illinois... which turned out to be a sign of things to come. However, Wilmont and Marco were the only double-figure scorers this time, and Vaden went 0-5 from 3 point range, part of a mini-slump. Shawn Pruitt scored a career high as well - which to me was really the start of some visible issues between Marco and the coaches regarding his defense.
The Purdue game was ugly. Another career night for an opposing interior player. Indiana only shot 39.1% (a season low at the time). Vaden continued to struggle with his shot. Allen started but his defense put him right back on the bench. It might've just been a standard letdown in between two huge games, but unfortunately the chinks in the armor against Illinois seemed to continue. After beating Illinois, it seemed almost strange that the team didn't seem to be playing with confidence.
Still, we were 4-1 in the conference with two big road games coming up.
Iowa is a good team (#19) and undefeated at home, and to make matters worse Strickland was unable to play (which in restrospect was an even worse situation because Davis could not move Strick to point when Iowa switched Brunner onto Monroe. With Ratliff struggling, Indiana was force to play long stretches with two of Monroe, Calloway, ad Suhr at the same time. Marco had possibly his worst game (to that point) with 5-14 shooting, 4 turnovers, and 2 defensive rebounds. Indiana stayed in the game for most of it thanks to the heroics of Robert Vaden (26 points on 8-12 shooting from the 3 point line), but overall Indiana seemed to be fighting just to keep things competitive. Marco's attitude seemed to get worse with every B10 game, and Ratliff fouled out in 9 minutes. Ugh.
Ratliff said after the game that some of his teammates weren't giving it their all.
I think this was the turning point of the season. After beating Illinois a week earlier, the team seemed to have completely lost it's swagger, Marco was being taken mentally out of the games, players were questioning their teammates, etc. As fans, we overreact to losses on principle, and certainly the last few seasons have taken this to a new level -- for example we had fans writing the season off because we lost at Michigan State... immediately after losing two starters. Because, you know, MSU was 0-2 and not that good.
But if we ignore our own strangeness for a second, it seems like the mental collapse of the team was bizarre and unfounded. We just beat Illinois. We just beat Purdue. And we lost to a good Iowa team without Strickland. Yet the team seemed to be in crisis mode. Why? Sure, they weren't playing as well as they were capable of playing, but the mood of the team seemed out of whack with how bad the situation really was. The more I think about it, the more I think that the mental impact of losing DJ again was more devastating than we realized -- and larger than it should have been. The loss at Iowa seemed to severely shake the team up, resulting directly in the disaster at Minnesota. Suddenly the team was not executing, not playing with passion, not shooting well... the shift was fast and unwarranted, IMO.
Northwestern is not a game to get one's mojo back. Their offensive and defensive schemes are so irregular that Indiana had to just kinda plow through the game, which they did. Marco showed no signs of recovering his earlier season form, but I thought the rest of the team made a little progress - or at least stopped the bleeding. UConn is arguably not a great chance to get back on track either - it's an opportunity to get back emotionally with a win, but trying to beat the #1 team in the country in order to get your team's head back in the game is a tough situation (particularly because I think we match up horribly with UConn).
In the end, I'm not sure what to make of things. On the one hand, I think there's no reason to believe that the team can't play MUCH better than they're playing right now, based on the evidence at hand, but at the same time the fact that they've fallen apart so dramatically makes me worry about their ability to pull back together. On the one hand the team has played well in some games without DJ against some good teams, on the other hand our road record without DJ is astonishly bad (Western Illinois, Indiana State, Michigan State, Iowa, Minnesota -- 4 losses and 1 win against a team that is significantly worse than the worst B10 team). There's clearly a ton of variability still left in how this season might play out. But I think if you look at the season without the DJ games and without the 4 mega-cupcake games, the clear implication is that the best this team can hope to accomplish is significantly less than winning the B10 and making a long run in the NCAA tournament.
Duke 75, Indiana 67
Indiana State 72, Indiana 67
Indiana 79, Kentucky 53
Michigan St. 87, Indiana 73
Indiana 62, Illinois 60
Indiana 62, Purdue 49
Iowa 73, Indiana 60
Minnesota 61, Indiana 42
Indiana 72, Northwestern 63
Thursday, February 02, 2006
Strange experience watching the Northwestern game
It was a close game throughout, and of course I was cheering Wilmont's 3s and Suhr's passing and the clutch FTs. We're halfway through the B10 season. We're 5-3. We're one loss behind the leaders. There's still alot of basketball to be played, and I really want to see the team turn things around and start to "click".
On the other hand, I would not have been completely upset had Indiana lost. How is that possible? No part of me wanted Indiana to lose, of course, but if we had lost it would have gone a long way towards ensuring that Indiana would have a new coach next season, which I desparately want to see happen.
In a way, I want one of two things to happen - 1) go on a run, or 2) crash and burn. With the talent on this team, we could make a run - tie for a B10 title, make it to the Elite Eight, etc. But if that is not going to happen, then I want there to be no question about the need for a new coach.
What I expect and fear is that neither happens. We play up-and-down the rest of the way, finish a couple ames out of first, win a couple B10 & NCAA tournament games... and do just enough to make it impossible to fire Davis, but no more than that.
*sigh*
On the other hand, I would not have been completely upset had Indiana lost. How is that possible? No part of me wanted Indiana to lose, of course, but if we had lost it would have gone a long way towards ensuring that Indiana would have a new coach next season, which I desparately want to see happen.
In a way, I want one of two things to happen - 1) go on a run, or 2) crash and burn. With the talent on this team, we could make a run - tie for a B10 title, make it to the Elite Eight, etc. But if that is not going to happen, then I want there to be no question about the need for a new coach.
What I expect and fear is that neither happens. We play up-and-down the rest of the way, finish a couple ames out of first, win a couple B10 & NCAA tournament games... and do just enough to make it impossible to fire Davis, but no more than that.
*sigh*
Tuesday, January 31, 2006
Sunday, January 29, 2006
Minnesota - 61, Indiana - 42
Thanks to CBS regional coverage, which decided that we folks in Durham would enjoy watching unranked Kentucky play unranked Arkansas, I wasn't able to see the latest debacle in The Barn.
As always, I was worried heading into the game. I always worry, even when we're playing a team that is winless in the B10 in six tries, including home losses against Northwestern and Michigan (by 16!). But even in my most pessimistic mood I didn't expect this - to not even be competitive.
CBS Sportsline has a great feature - Full Play-by-Play for games. It might even be more disgusting than watching the game. Here's some excerpts:
18:18 MN Zach Puchtel made Layup, Assist J'son Stamper
16:17 MN J'son Stamper made Layup, Assist Adam Boone
15:26 MN Vincent Grier made Layup
9:42 MN Spencer Tollackson made Layup
8:12 MN Adam Boone made Layup
5:51 MN Maurice Hargrow made Layup, Assist Vincent Grier
4:29 MN Vincent Grier made Driving Layup
2:35 MN Zach Puchtel made Layup
25.0 MN Vincent Grier made Tip-in
17:58 IN Marco Killingsworth missed Layup
16:08 MN J'son Stamper made Layup
6:53 IN Marco Killingsworth missed Layup
5:46 IN Marco Killingsworth missed Layup
5:39 IN Marco Killingsworth missed Tip-in
5:01 MN Vincent Grier made Layup
2:55 IN Marco Killingsworth missed Layup
1:23 MN Vincent Grier made Driving Layup
Bear in mind that Minnesota is a team that was trying desparately to find ways to score points.
I guess layups work pretty good.
Jinkies - we have games against UConn, at Wisconsin, and at Illinois coming up. This could get ugly. Er... uglier.
As always, I was worried heading into the game. I always worry, even when we're playing a team that is winless in the B10 in six tries, including home losses against Northwestern and Michigan (by 16!). But even in my most pessimistic mood I didn't expect this - to not even be competitive.
CBS Sportsline has a great feature - Full Play-by-Play for games. It might even be more disgusting than watching the game. Here's some excerpts:
18:18 MN Zach Puchtel made Layup, Assist J'son Stamper
16:17 MN J'son Stamper made Layup, Assist Adam Boone
15:26 MN Vincent Grier made Layup
9:42 MN Spencer Tollackson made Layup
8:12 MN Adam Boone made Layup
5:51 MN Maurice Hargrow made Layup, Assist Vincent Grier
4:29 MN Vincent Grier made Driving Layup
2:35 MN Zach Puchtel made Layup
25.0 MN Vincent Grier made Tip-in
17:58 IN Marco Killingsworth missed Layup
16:08 MN J'son Stamper made Layup
6:53 IN Marco Killingsworth missed Layup
5:46 IN Marco Killingsworth missed Layup
5:39 IN Marco Killingsworth missed Tip-in
5:01 MN Vincent Grier made Layup
2:55 IN Marco Killingsworth missed Layup
1:23 MN Vincent Grier made Driving Layup
Bear in mind that Minnesota is a team that was trying desparately to find ways to score points.
I guess layups work pretty good.
Jinkies - we have games against UConn, at Wisconsin, and at Illinois coming up. This could get ugly. Er... uglier.
Thursday, January 26, 2006
Home cooking in the B10 - data analysis
I think home cooking is just part of playing on the road in the B10. Everyone plays the same number of home and away games, so it evens out in the end. Sure, it's frustrating when we're on the road - just like it's frustrating for the opponent in Bloomington.
However, after seeing the foul differential in the Indiana @ Iowa game and the MSU @ Michigan game, I decided some research was in order.
There have been 34 B10 games so far this season. I looked at each one and noted the number of fouls on the home team and the away team. Here's the results (raw data is at the bottom).
Total games = 34
Average fouls/game = 33.4
Average away fouls/game = 18.3
Average home fouls/game = 15.2
Average foul differential = 3.1
* Home team has more fouls in 10 of 34 games.
# Away team has 8 or more fouls in 8 games.
Home team has 8 or more fouls in 0 games.
Obviously those are some pretty significant numbers. I think the last two are particularly interesting. An 8 foul differential is obviously pretty darn big -- it NEVER happens to the home team, and it has happened to the road team a whopping 24% of the time.
So then I wracked my brain trying to think of an explanation for this difference that didn't involve biased officiating. I came up with one alternative explanation. Obviously, some foul differential is the result of the trailing team fouling late in the game, and since B10 home teams win at a remarkable clip this might account for the difference. Of course, there's a cause-and-effect problem there, because it could be that home teams win at a remarkable clip BECAUSE of the foul differential, so without having data about the fouls committed in the last 3 or 4 minutes of the game, I don't know how to test my hypothesis.
Anyway, here's the raw data:
A H
nw @ pu 18 16
ps @ uw 20 12 #
ms @ um 26 14 #
mn @ il 15 13
iu @ ia 25 9 #
ia @ ms 17 15
os @ ps 17 18 *
pu @ iu 24 21
il @ nw 12 16 *
um @ mn 18 16
pu @ ps 13 16 *
mn @ ia 25 16 #
nw @ um 7 14 *
uw @ os 21 14
il @ iu 22 17
ms @ os 12 16 *
ia @ ps 17 19 *
nw @ uw 21 14
um @ il 20 20
mn @ pu 18 16
iu @ ms 20 12 #
os @ pu 16 10
ps @ nw 11 17 *
uw @ mn 18 23 *
ms @ uw 24 16 #
pu @ um 23 16
il @ ia 25 12 #
nw @ mn 8 14 *
os @ iu 25 16 #
ia @ uw 18 14
ps @ os 12 14 *
ms @ il 17 12
pu @ nw 18 16
um @ iu 18 12
However, after seeing the foul differential in the Indiana @ Iowa game and the MSU @ Michigan game, I decided some research was in order.
There have been 34 B10 games so far this season. I looked at each one and noted the number of fouls on the home team and the away team. Here's the results (raw data is at the bottom).
Total games = 34
Average fouls/game = 33.4
Average away fouls/game = 18.3
Average home fouls/game = 15.2
Average foul differential = 3.1
* Home team has more fouls in 10 of 34 games.
# Away team has 8 or more fouls in 8 games.
Home team has 8 or more fouls in 0 games.
Obviously those are some pretty significant numbers. I think the last two are particularly interesting. An 8 foul differential is obviously pretty darn big -- it NEVER happens to the home team, and it has happened to the road team a whopping 24% of the time.
So then I wracked my brain trying to think of an explanation for this difference that didn't involve biased officiating. I came up with one alternative explanation. Obviously, some foul differential is the result of the trailing team fouling late in the game, and since B10 home teams win at a remarkable clip this might account for the difference. Of course, there's a cause-and-effect problem there, because it could be that home teams win at a remarkable clip BECAUSE of the foul differential, so without having data about the fouls committed in the last 3 or 4 minutes of the game, I don't know how to test my hypothesis.
Anyway, here's the raw data:
A H
nw @ pu 18 16
ps @ uw 20 12 #
ms @ um 26 14 #
mn @ il 15 13
iu @ ia 25 9 #
ia @ ms 17 15
os @ ps 17 18 *
pu @ iu 24 21
il @ nw 12 16 *
um @ mn 18 16
pu @ ps 13 16 *
mn @ ia 25 16 #
nw @ um 7 14 *
uw @ os 21 14
il @ iu 22 17
ms @ os 12 16 *
ia @ ps 17 19 *
nw @ uw 21 14
um @ il 20 20
mn @ pu 18 16
iu @ ms 20 12 #
os @ pu 16 10
ps @ nw 11 17 *
uw @ mn 18 23 *
ms @ uw 24 16 #
pu @ um 23 16
il @ ia 25 12 #
nw @ mn 8 14 *
os @ iu 25 16 #
ia @ uw 18 14
ps @ os 12 14 *
ms @ il 17 12
pu @ nw 18 16
um @ iu 18 12
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
Quick Quilts
I received the January issue of Quick Quilts on Saturday and the March issue yesterday. They're great! Thank you. The Reindeer quilt looks like a pattern that I could use my punch needle on. It would be a great Christmas decoration.
Sunday, January 22, 2006
Indiana-Purdue makes it official
Indiana is 4-1 without playing very well. We lost our only road game handily (no shame in that at MSU), and in our four home games we:
- beat Michigan in a game that was in doubt in the final 2 mins
- beat OSU in a game that came down to the final possession
- beat Illinois in a game that came down to the final possession
- beat Purdue in a game where Purdue was still in the game late in the second half
While it's great to win each of those games, none of the wins were particularly impressive in terms of how Indiana played. Indiana shot 45%, 49%, 40%, and 39% in those games, respectively. Vaden, Ratliff, and Strickland seem to be struggling with their shots (which REALLY hurts us), and Allen is not coming around like we'd like.
Our defense is playing well and our rebounding is improving, but by and large I don't think Indiana is playing very well right now.
On the bright side, Iowa needed triple overtime to beat Minnesota in Iowa City, then Minnesota lost at home (again) to Michigan while Iowa lost by 30 at Michigan State. Iowa, as is their habit, seems to be playing worse as the season progresses and suddenly the game at The Barn looks like a must win for the Hoosiers (I don't want the Gophers to get their first B10 win against the Hoosiers).
It's starting to look unlikely that MSU will be worse than 12-4 in the league (even if you assume we beat them in Bloomington - a big assumption), so IMO Indiana needs to play much better to win the B10.
Moving Vaden back to the 4 would be a good start.
- beat Michigan in a game that was in doubt in the final 2 mins
- beat OSU in a game that came down to the final possession
- beat Illinois in a game that came down to the final possession
- beat Purdue in a game where Purdue was still in the game late in the second half
While it's great to win each of those games, none of the wins were particularly impressive in terms of how Indiana played. Indiana shot 45%, 49%, 40%, and 39% in those games, respectively. Vaden, Ratliff, and Strickland seem to be struggling with their shots (which REALLY hurts us), and Allen is not coming around like we'd like.
Our defense is playing well and our rebounding is improving, but by and large I don't think Indiana is playing very well right now.
On the bright side, Iowa needed triple overtime to beat Minnesota in Iowa City, then Minnesota lost at home (again) to Michigan while Iowa lost by 30 at Michigan State. Iowa, as is their habit, seems to be playing worse as the season progresses and suddenly the game at The Barn looks like a must win for the Hoosiers (I don't want the Gophers to get their first B10 win against the Hoosiers).
It's starting to look unlikely that MSU will be worse than 12-4 in the league (even if you assume we beat them in Bloomington - a big assumption), so IMO Indiana needs to play much better to win the B10.
Moving Vaden back to the 4 would be a good start.
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
condo
Any good news about the condo? I hope so. How many people have looked at it? Do you get any feedback from your realtor? I enjoyed making that "Crazy Eight" quilt for Chris & Daves new baby so much that I have started one for Elizabeth's baby. I haven't received my quilting mag yet. I'm really looking forward to it.
IU-Illinois: What a completely bizarre game
1. We beat the 5th ranked team in the country, and yet I don't think we played well at all. We started and ended the game playing basketball just about as poorly as it can be played. And in the middle of the game when we outscored the Illini by 26 points, I thought we played average basketball.
2. The "4 Guard Naysayers" were exactly right in their complaints... for once. Vaden had a truly awful game. On defense he was eaten alive by Pruitt and Augustine, and he wasn't able to get that back on the offensive end at all. He missed shots, turned the ball over, and made bad decisions - which is completely uncharacteristic. Even at the very end, he missed that last free throw that could have ensured that the best Illinois could do was force overtime (with Brown and Randle out and Augustine with 4 fouls)... and he's a great FT shooter! It was like Vaden pulled all his "off games" together and decided to get rid of them all at once.
3. Those two threes that Ben Allen hit during our big first half run were great, but oh my goodness, anyone who thinks we should play Allen at the 4 instead of Vaden to improve our defense and rebounding is obviously not watching Allen except when we're on offense. Yikes. He played 9 minutes and had 3 fouls, 2 turnovers, and 0 rebounds... and it showed. We really need Allen to get things together on the defensive side of the ball, because that 3 point shot is a real weapon, if we can afford to keep him on the floor long enough to shoot it. C'mon, Ben.
4. What to say about Marco Killingsworth? He was terrible in the first half. He turned the ball over over, he missed layups, he got pushed around, he got frustrated with the refs, and he got called for an absolutely correct intentional foul when Indiana had possession. Then in the first 15 minutes of the second half he was unstoppable offensively and helped Indiana build up our biggest lead, including hitting some big free throws. Then our fifth-year senior made two jawdropping, boneheaded turnovers in crunchtime, resulting in 5 Illinois points when the game was completely in doubt. Should we be happy that his 23 points helped us win... or worried that he played like crap for half his 34 minutes on the floor?
5. Thank goodness that Wilmont is playing so well, because Ratliff is still struggling badly. Heading into the season, I really believed that Ratliff would be one of our best players... then he got injured, and it seems to have had a tremendously large impact on him. I was hoping for a big improvement, yet he was playing better last season than he is now, and he's been playing for a lot of game now since coming back from injury. C'mon, AJ, we need you.
6. Lewis Monroe's defense is extremely underrated.
7. Whatever happened to home cookin'? I'm sure there's an Illini fan out there complaining about the officiating right now, but they're out to lunch. As people probably know, I'm not big on blaming refs for losses, especially on the road, because I think that's just the way it goes and the human element to officiating is simply a part of the game. But good gravy, I thought the officiating was peculiar last night. That charging call on Vaden late in the second half was embarrassing. And Pruitt was (to his credit) manhandling IU players all night - and one thing he did all night was pretend he was an NFL lineman when an IU big man would run into the lane. Pruitt would go up and block him, stopping him in his tracks. By my eye, this resulted in two fouls... one on Ben Allen and one on Marco (the intentional foul). He did this about 30 times. And just to be clear, I think Marco's frustation intentional foul was a dumb move and a good call - Marco needs to be smarter than that. But I can certainly empathize with the frustration.
8. We held Dee Brown and James Augustine to 16 points and still almost lost the game.
9. Our starting backcourt of Monroe, Strickland, and Vaden combined for 14 points, and we still won the game.
10. I'm really happy with the win, but I'm not sure how many positives we can take away from this game beyond the W.
2. The "4 Guard Naysayers" were exactly right in their complaints... for once. Vaden had a truly awful game. On defense he was eaten alive by Pruitt and Augustine, and he wasn't able to get that back on the offensive end at all. He missed shots, turned the ball over, and made bad decisions - which is completely uncharacteristic. Even at the very end, he missed that last free throw that could have ensured that the best Illinois could do was force overtime (with Brown and Randle out and Augustine with 4 fouls)... and he's a great FT shooter! It was like Vaden pulled all his "off games" together and decided to get rid of them all at once.
3. Those two threes that Ben Allen hit during our big first half run were great, but oh my goodness, anyone who thinks we should play Allen at the 4 instead of Vaden to improve our defense and rebounding is obviously not watching Allen except when we're on offense. Yikes. He played 9 minutes and had 3 fouls, 2 turnovers, and 0 rebounds... and it showed. We really need Allen to get things together on the defensive side of the ball, because that 3 point shot is a real weapon, if we can afford to keep him on the floor long enough to shoot it. C'mon, Ben.
4. What to say about Marco Killingsworth? He was terrible in the first half. He turned the ball over over, he missed layups, he got pushed around, he got frustrated with the refs, and he got called for an absolutely correct intentional foul when Indiana had possession. Then in the first 15 minutes of the second half he was unstoppable offensively and helped Indiana build up our biggest lead, including hitting some big free throws. Then our fifth-year senior made two jawdropping, boneheaded turnovers in crunchtime, resulting in 5 Illinois points when the game was completely in doubt. Should we be happy that his 23 points helped us win... or worried that he played like crap for half his 34 minutes on the floor?
5. Thank goodness that Wilmont is playing so well, because Ratliff is still struggling badly. Heading into the season, I really believed that Ratliff would be one of our best players... then he got injured, and it seems to have had a tremendously large impact on him. I was hoping for a big improvement, yet he was playing better last season than he is now, and he's been playing for a lot of game now since coming back from injury. C'mon, AJ, we need you.
6. Lewis Monroe's defense is extremely underrated.
7. Whatever happened to home cookin'? I'm sure there's an Illini fan out there complaining about the officiating right now, but they're out to lunch. As people probably know, I'm not big on blaming refs for losses, especially on the road, because I think that's just the way it goes and the human element to officiating is simply a part of the game. But good gravy, I thought the officiating was peculiar last night. That charging call on Vaden late in the second half was embarrassing. And Pruitt was (to his credit) manhandling IU players all night - and one thing he did all night was pretend he was an NFL lineman when an IU big man would run into the lane. Pruitt would go up and block him, stopping him in his tracks. By my eye, this resulted in two fouls... one on Ben Allen and one on Marco (the intentional foul). He did this about 30 times. And just to be clear, I think Marco's frustation intentional foul was a dumb move and a good call - Marco needs to be smarter than that. But I can certainly empathize with the frustration.
8. We held Dee Brown and James Augustine to 16 points and still almost lost the game.
9. Our starting backcourt of Monroe, Strickland, and Vaden combined for 14 points, and we still won the game.
10. I'm really happy with the win, but I'm not sure how many positives we can take away from this game beyond the W.
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
It's hard to overstate the importance of tonight's game
Let's face it, the 3 best basketball programs in the B10 right now are Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Not Indiana. This season represented the first time in awhile where Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan all had teams capable of shaking up the pecking order in the B10. How's it going so far?
Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin are ranked #7, #11, and #15 in the latest AP Poll. And Indiana is #13.
MSU lost on the road to Illinois and Wisconsin, like everyone else, but then beat IU at home and OSU on the road to solidify themselves as one of the B10 elite. Wisconsin continues to be Wisconsin - unbeatable at home, and capable of stealing wins on the road (at Minnesota). Illinois might be the most vulnerable. They lost at Iowa and struggled at home against Michigan - but won.
MSU won at OSU - the first team to win a road game at one of the Top 7 B10 teams. This is Illinois' second chance to pull off that feat. If they can win at Indiana, the Big 3 pecking order remains the status quo, and Indiana (like OSU) starts to once again look like a pretender.
If Indiana wins, the Hoosiers hunt to get back to elite B10 status moves another tiny step forward. Taking care of OSU, Michigan, and Illinois at home is expected of elite teams. Purdue and Northwestern are our two other home games in the first half of the B10 season, so a win tonight makes it extremely likely that IU would be undefeated at home at the turn. And the road games at Iowa and Minnesota would be full of opportunity. Hoosier fans will be dreaming of B10 titles - and at least competing for the B10 title will seem assured.
If Indiana loses... well, we'll have a home loss with two tough road games coming up and the high possibility of reaching the turn at 4-4, fighting for a spot in the NCAA tournament with the other bubble teams.
Okay, so that's a bit melodramatic. But nonetheless, this game is huge.
Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin are ranked #7, #11, and #15 in the latest AP Poll. And Indiana is #13.
MSU lost on the road to Illinois and Wisconsin, like everyone else, but then beat IU at home and OSU on the road to solidify themselves as one of the B10 elite. Wisconsin continues to be Wisconsin - unbeatable at home, and capable of stealing wins on the road (at Minnesota). Illinois might be the most vulnerable. They lost at Iowa and struggled at home against Michigan - but won.
MSU won at OSU - the first team to win a road game at one of the Top 7 B10 teams. This is Illinois' second chance to pull off that feat. If they can win at Indiana, the Big 3 pecking order remains the status quo, and Indiana (like OSU) starts to once again look like a pretender.
If Indiana wins, the Hoosiers hunt to get back to elite B10 status moves another tiny step forward. Taking care of OSU, Michigan, and Illinois at home is expected of elite teams. Purdue and Northwestern are our two other home games in the first half of the B10 season, so a win tonight makes it extremely likely that IU would be undefeated at home at the turn. And the road games at Iowa and Minnesota would be full of opportunity. Hoosier fans will be dreaming of B10 titles - and at least competing for the B10 title will seem assured.
If Indiana loses... well, we'll have a home loss with two tough road games coming up and the high possibility of reaching the turn at 4-4, fighting for a spot in the NCAA tournament with the other bubble teams.
Okay, so that's a bit melodramatic. But nonetheless, this game is huge.
Thursday, January 12, 2006
The "Big Seven" B10 teams are 9-0 at home
Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, MSU, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State are a combined 9-0 at home.
In addition, none of the Big Seven has yet to lose a road game against the Little Four.
There's no mystery to what's going on here. No one has any idea who is going to win the B10. Until one of the Big Seven wins on the road against a Big Seven team, everyone's in the same boat. Indiana has to hold serve at home against Illinois. If we do that, we're still in the hunt, just like everyone else. No one has gotten themselves an advantage yet.
This weekend, the big chance for some to get an advantage is MSU at OSU. If MSU wins that game, they get an edge. The rest of the games (NW @ UW, UM @ Ill, Iowa @ PSU) will more than likely continue the present trend. If OSU beats MSU, then we head into next week with essentially all seven teams clumped together once again.
(The only caveat there is Wisconsin, thanks to the unbalanced schedule -- if every Big Seven team wins 2 of their road games against Big Seven teams, Wisconsin wins the B10 outright)
In addition, none of the Big Seven has yet to lose a road game against the Little Four.
There's no mystery to what's going on here. No one has any idea who is going to win the B10. Until one of the Big Seven wins on the road against a Big Seven team, everyone's in the same boat. Indiana has to hold serve at home against Illinois. If we do that, we're still in the hunt, just like everyone else. No one has gotten themselves an advantage yet.
This weekend, the big chance for some to get an advantage is MSU at OSU. If MSU wins that game, they get an edge. The rest of the games (NW @ UW, UM @ Ill, Iowa @ PSU) will more than likely continue the present trend. If OSU beats MSU, then we head into next week with essentially all seven teams clumped together once again.
(The only caveat there is Wisconsin, thanks to the unbalanced schedule -- if every Big Seven team wins 2 of their road games against Big Seven teams, Wisconsin wins the B10 outright)
Next 4 games
Indiana's next four games are:
Illinois
Purdue
@ Iowa
@ Minnesota
In my opinion, we have to go 3-1 in those games to have a legitimate shot at winning the B10. We have to protect the home court, so obviously the Illinois game is huge. Beating Purdue in Assembly Hall ought to be a given. Then we need to split on the road against Iowa and Minnesota.
Let's say we lost both those road games. I think we need to be 12-4 to win the B10. That would mean that in the last 9 games of the season, not only would we need to win all our home games (including the game against MSU), but we'd need to go 3-2 on the road against Wisconsin, Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan. No one wins at Illinois and Wisconsin. That leaves no margin for error.
Losing at MSU is not a big deal. But we need to win on the road somewhere, and those Iowa and Minnesota games are winnable.
Illinois
Purdue
@ Iowa
@ Minnesota
In my opinion, we have to go 3-1 in those games to have a legitimate shot at winning the B10. We have to protect the home court, so obviously the Illinois game is huge. Beating Purdue in Assembly Hall ought to be a given. Then we need to split on the road against Iowa and Minnesota.
Let's say we lost both those road games. I think we need to be 12-4 to win the B10. That would mean that in the last 9 games of the season, not only would we need to win all our home games (including the game against MSU), but we'd need to go 3-2 on the road against Wisconsin, Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan. No one wins at Illinois and Wisconsin. That leaves no margin for error.
Losing at MSU is not a big deal. But we need to win on the road somewhere, and those Iowa and Minnesota games are winnable.
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